Dear Cape Friends
I missed last week’s note due to a personal family “thing” that came out of nowhere - life occasionally reminds us who’s boss. As my great friend likes to say, “If you want to give God a good laugh, tell him your plans..” (..and he also adds “pls pray for the NY JETS.”)
But I’m back, refocused, and thought it might be helpful to take a quick look at how the Lower Cape market performed in the third quarter - and where things appear to be heading as we close out 2025.
According to Cape Cod & Islands FastStats (our bible for accurate real estate data points here on the Cape), the numbers tell the story - and let me preface this by saying: I am not Jerome Powell, but stay with me…
The Numbers Tell the Story
Across Chatham, Orleans, Harwich, and Brewster, the summer market of 2025 quietly told a story of normalization after three years of near-constant acceleration.
Q3 2025 Lower Cape Market Snapshot
On paper, that may look like a market in retreat - but the reality is more nuanced.
The decline in median price largely reflects a shift in what’s selling, not just weakness in property values. In 2024, luxury closings dominated the mix; this year, we saw a surge of mid-tier homes ($600K–$900K) finding buyers.
Despite inventory climbing and days-on-market increasing, homes that are turnkey or well-sited near water continue to move quickly - often with multiple inquiries. The difference now is that buyers finally have time to breathe, analyze, and make considered offers instead of sprinting to the finish line.
A Market Returning to Balance
If 2024 was defined by scarcity and speed, 2025 has been about patience and pricing realism.
Sellers are adjusting to meet the market, and the best results are coming from those who listen to what the data - and buyers - are saying.
Across the Lower Cape (aka the famed “elbow”), a healthy equilibrium is taking shape:
Buyers are more measured but still motivated, especially those looking to secure a home before spring.
Sellers who price intelligently (and present their homes well) are being rewarded with solid, clean offers.
Inventory, though still constrained, is showing early signs of recovery - a trend worth watching as we move into Q4.
That said, let’s be honest - uncertainty still hangs in the air. Interest rates, election-year jitters, and shifting buyer psychology make it tough to predict what’s next. My advice? Don’t hold your breath waiting for the “perfect” moment. If a solid deal presents itself – pull the trigger!.
Historically, this time of year marks the beginning of the Cape’s “quiet season” - but quiet often brings opportunity. The fall and winter months tend to attract serious buyers rather than casual browsers, and many of the best deals of the year happen between now and March.
Looking Ahead
Markets like this reward preparation. For homeowners considering listing in 2026, now’s the time to start the conversation - to review comps, plan updates, and enter the new year positioned to capture that early spring demand.
And if you’re starting to think about buying or selling, PaulBorde.com is always a great resource to browse listings, catch past newsletters, and stay current on the market (and - if I may say so - read some Pulitzer Prize–level past updates).
If you’d like a no-pressure analysis of where your home stands in today’s market - or just a broader perspective on the trends shaping the Lower Cape - I’m always happy to chat.
If you’re around Friday morning, stop by Chatham Perk for the very BEST coffee on the Cape. I’ll be there - and as always, it’s on me.
Best,
Paul