Dear Cape Friends,
If you’re new here, welcome. If you’ve been with me for a while, welcome back. Each week I share Cape Cod real estate with a side of humor, common sense, and a splash of salt air.
On New Year’s Eve - somewhere between reflection, resolution, and deciding whether to stay up until midnight (Umm, I’m not..) - the predictions about markets and real estate seem to get a little louder.
As the calendar turns, it’s hard to miss the flood of predictions about the year ahead: interest rates, markets, the economy, energy costs (my son sits on a natural gas trading desk and based on a Christmas eve convo - with a wine buzz - I’m now an expert🤪) and what it all supposedly means for real estate. Many of them are delivered with great confidence. Several already disagree with one another.
For what it’s worth, I remain personally bullish. That said, the current administration (surprisingly) has not reached out to me to replace Jerome Powell as Chairman of the Federal Reserve - so please take the following with the appropriate grain of salt.
That optimism isn’t just philosophical. When I look at the data locally - particularly here in Chatham - it tells a very clear story. Inventory remains tight at roughly 2.8 months, homes are trading at nearly 100% of asking price, median sold prices are up meaningfully year-over-year, and days on market remain relatively compressed. Despite what some so called “experts” suggest, the local data simply does NOT support a bearish narrative here.
See RPR Report - Chatham Market Trends Link
(Pls go to my website and click on to Market Update for other towns on the Cape)
Interest Rates
Rates remain central to nearly every real estate conversation. Most economists expect gradual easing rather than dramatic cuts. In practice, stability may matter more than the precise number. Buyers tend to adapt once rates feel predictable, even if they aren’t historically low.
The Broader Economy & Markets
Equity markets have been resilient, though volatility hasn’t disappeared. In periods of uncertainty, tangible assets like real estate stand out as long-term stores of value. That doesn’t imply rapid appreciation - but it does support steady, durable demand. I gotta share that back in May -right before my daughters wedding in Bermuda, a good friend I respect strongly advised me -over a post round drink at Eastward Ho! - to “immediately sell everything.” Huh..? No names… (for the record, he did NOT par #17 that day - as he wrote on the scorecard - just saying) Sorry, not sorry.. ⛳
Cape Cod Is Its Own Market
As usual, Cape Cod continues to behave differently than national headlines might suggest. Limited inventory, strong second-home demand, and the lifestyle component provide a level of insulation. At the same time, Buyers remain selective. Condition, pricing, and location matter more than ever.
What This Means for Homeowners
We appear to be in a more measured phase - not a boom, not a bust. Homes that are priced thoughtfully and presented well continue to move. One very recent example was a Chatham property I represented (73 Joshua Jethro link) was carefully positioned and closed at full asking, and in just 66 days. Others require patience, strategy, and clear expectations. In this environment, clarity has real value.
If you’d like a calm, no-pressure check-in about where your Cape Cod property fits into this broader landscape, I’m always happy to offer perspective. And if you’re around Friday morning, I’m at Chatham Perk from 8:00–9:00 a.m.- the very BEST coffee on Cape Cod, bar none.
Happy New Year, everybody.
See you around the elbow,
Paul
P.S. If you ever want a thoughtful conversation about what this evolving market means for your home, I’m always here - just common sense and a local perspective. And if you’re starting to think about buying or selling, PaulBorde.com is a good place to browse listings, catch past newsletters, and stay current on the market (and -if I may say so- revisit a few of my Pulitzer Prize–level past newsletters).